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By Chris Young, Comcast.net Sports

In a sport where respect means everything, UFC light heavyweight champ “Sugar” Rashad Evans has found it's hard to find.

You would think Evans’ near-perfect record of 18-0-1 (9-0-1 inside the Octagon) would be enough to quiet his critics. You would think his concussive knockout of Chuck Liddell – quite possibly the hardest one-punch KO in recent UFC history – would send his doubters to bed early.

Yet Evans’ accolades often fall short of his talents.

Maybe the general disbelief was borne from his controversial draw vs. Tito Ortiz. Maybe fans are put off by his quick-to-counter, head-hunting style. Hell, maybe it’s that he beat up poster-boy Forrest Griffin when few expected him to.

Evans himself can’t remember the last time he was favored to win a fight. And when he enters the Octagon this Saturday night vs. undefeated Shotokan karate whiz Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida, the odds will be against him yet again.

Funny when you consider Evans is the champ and Machida the challenger. Especially since The Dragon is the replacement title conquest for what was supposed to be Evans-Rampage. But whether you love or loathe Sugar, you can’t deny his explosive power and unwavering will to finish fights.

And that’s precisely what UFC fans want: Mettle, mysticism and a fighter who can end a match in a cold snap.

Evans embodies all of those fan-friendly elements, and he’s a winner to boot. His ability to bust up some of the best in the UFC’s most crowded division has him confident heading into the first title defense of his career. Winning the light heavyweight strap was one thing, but for Evans, retaining it is what separates the stars from the superstars.

“I think the real challenge is just defending it.” Rashad said. “You know, everybody wants to fight you for this piece of metal and leather. … I like that.”

That challenge is as real as it gets when your opponent is a force of mysterious fighting nature like Machida.

At 14-0, and with wins over top contenders and former champions the likes of Rich Franklin, B.J. Penn, Tito Ortiz, Stephan Bonnar and previously unbeaten Thiago Silva, Machida’s unorthodox, near calming fighting style has been a love/hate relationship for MMA fans.

Rarely do we see highlight-worthy moves from the fists and feet of Machida. Many of his wins have been technical to the point of boredom, and boo birds have let him know it.

But Lyoto doesn’t care to be a showstopper. The son of a first-generation Japanese-Brazilian Shotokan master, Machida’s style is a convoluted web of martial arts. At the core of it, a black belt in Shotokan karate, a unique style characterized by deep, wide stances and fluid striking.

At first glance, Machida’s stance seems overtly stiff and upright. But true power comes from the hips, and his wide base gives him sound balance and the ability to create distance for full extension when striking.

Toss in the fact that he’s a southpaw with a weathered background in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and Sumo, and Machida’s style is Oz-like inside the cage.

More simply, he’s a tactical striker with scary good defense and he knows how to win.

But Evans is keenly aware of what he’s up against on paper. The wrestler/striker/ground-and-pounder has been scaling mountains since he won “TUF” 2. He’s noted Lyoto’s elusiveness, his talent and his unblemished record. Ask the defending champ who’s the toughest contender in the division and he’ll tell you that it’s Machida.

But none of that seems to bother a fighter like Evans who’s used to proving he belongs.

The Pick

The path to beating Machida is as much of a mystery to Evans as it is to us. How do you stump a fighter who only engages when engaged? Do you fight your fight or adjust to his game? If you try to create space to time your strikes and takedowns, you’re giving way to counters…

The strategy paradoxes roll on.

Like Anderson Silva, Lyoto rarely makes mistakes. This leaves his opponents with the troubling task of figuring him out in the heat of battle. And that is what makes MMA so damn appealing.

Evans will need to confuse and fluster a fighter who doesn’t fluster easily, a counter-striker who is cool and content circling the mat for 25 minutes.

The champ has fast hands, swift feet and unspeakable power. He can turn the tide of a fight with an explosive burst. He stalks more like a boxer, bobbing and bounding forward with high hands and good head movement. But he rarely jabs, and timing the shot that sends Lyoto to sleep is a dangerous game of cat and mouse without one. If Evans is to be successful, he’ll need to utilize a varied attack of feints and strikes to set up takedowns. The formula sounds simple enough, but we haven't truly seen Rashad the wrestler since a bout he nearly lost with “The Count.” Evans has the power and skill to take Machida to the canvas, but getting him there is a fight all its own.

If the fight stays standing at Machida’s range and pace, Evans will find himself trying to piece together a puzzle 14 others have failed to finish. How do you counter one of the best counter-strikers in the game? The clock may run out on the champ.

We could be in for a painfully boring five rounds of score and reset, score and reset. Or, we could see a sudden shot halt the action long before our beers begin to sweat.

Love them or hate them, Evans and Machida are two gifted athletes in the prime of their fighting careers extremely confident in their abilities.

Take two stones and crack them together and you get a spray of sparks. I give the speed and power edge to Evans, but technicality swings with Machida.

Check the “Karate Kid” wisecracks at the cage doors.

I like The Dragon by TKO.

Does The Dragon have the goods to upset the champ? Will Evans' speed and power be too much for the slower Machida? How will the fight end? Weigh in here.


Message Edited by ComcastSports on 05-22-2009 02:53 PM
Comments
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  • comment number 1
  • date 05-22-2009 02:23 PM
  • author dunebug1 writes:
body THE DRAGON BY SUBMISSION !

DUNBUG1
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  • comment number 2
  • date 05-22-2009 03:25 PM
  • author Croozer writes:
body Evans will knock him out.
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  • comment number 3
  • date 05-22-2009 03:49 PM
  • author Bry1215 writes:
body Evans will knockout Machida. Machida's goofy stand up wouldn't matter when Evans puts him on his back and ground and pounds him.
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  • comment number 4
  • date 05-22-2009 04:34 PM
  • author andreypa writes:
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Machida is going to win, probably in the 2-nd round. I give 90% of win for Machida! He won't let Evand put him down on his back,because he is quicker and smarter fighter!!!

Message Edited by andreypa on 05-22-2009 04:36 PM
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  • comment number 5
  • date 05-22-2009 06:24 PM
  • author Mowdown writes:
body People - Two sports you should never bet on in this century, MMA and Pro Football.
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  • comment number 6
  • date 05-22-2009 07:05 PM
  • author philo writes:
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Here's what comes to mind. Thales Leites vs. Anderson Sylva. Leites wouldn't engage, and Silva wouldn't be baited in. Leites was derided for not coming to fight, and some dumba55 actually had the nerve to ask Sylva why he didn't put on a more entertaining fight. Machida, the guy who pretty much only engages when engaged, will bring the same crap to this fight. Evans is the champion, just like Sylva, and the challengers are supposedly there to take the title. Simply countering all the time is like opportunistic scavengers waiting to sneak in and steal a real predator's kill. I hate that. The challenger should bring a fight, not sit back and wait for an opportunity to capitalize on a mistake of the champion. If anybody in the fight is entitled to that prerogative, it would be the champion. However, almost invariably, the true champions are there to put a hurt on the opponent, are aggressive, and have confidence in their ability to dominate the challenger. The real champions don't just show up to simply survive until their one chance to win presents itself. I hope this fight isn't a repeat of the Sylva/Leites fight, but it certainly has that potential. Personally, I would like to see Evans win.

Message Edited by philo on 05-22-2009 07:09 PM
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  • comment number 7
  • date 05-22-2009 10:21 PM
  • author markospeedo writes:
body Rashad Evans will, no doubt, knock Machida out!
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  • comment number 8
  • date 05-23-2009 07:52 AM
  • author jebaldoz writes:
body Machida by TKO. In order for Sugar to win this fight, it'd have to be from a powerpunch knockout standing up and I don't see that happening. He will become frustrated with Machida's style and open himself up. That's how Machida wins.
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  • comment number 9
  • date 06-02-2009 03:41 PM
  • author worrried writes:
body That is one of the dumbest interpretations of MMA that I have ever read.